Rasmussen Reports: Ohio Governor: Kasich (R) 47%, Strickland (D) 40%

The players are the same, and the numbers haven’t changed.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the governor’s race in Ohio finds Republican John Kasich with a 47% to 40% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland - for the second month in a row. Three percent (3%) of Likely Voters in the state prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.

But both major party candidates show a continuing inability to move their vote totals out of the range they’ve been in for months. Kasich earned 47% support to Strickland’s 42% last month.

In April and May, the candidates were basically tied. Prior to that time, Kasich had held modest leads over Strickland. Since December, Kasich’s support has remained in the narrow range of 46% to 49%, while Strickland’s in that same period have fallen in the 38% to 45% range.

Strickland was elected governor in 2006 with 60% of the vote. Kasich, a former congressman, holds a double-digit lead among male voters, while female voters break essentially even between the two candidates. Voters not affiliated with either party favor the Republican by a 45% to 28% margin.

The economy and jobs continue to be the central issues in a state that has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. While Republicans focus on job losses while Strickland has been governor., Democrats have countered by citing Kasich’s ties to Wall Street. The Republican has worked as an investment banker since leaving Congress in 2000.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on June 29, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Former Republican Congressman Rob Portman holds a narrow 43% to 39% lead over Democratic Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters in Ohio favor a tough immigration law like Arizona’s in their state, which is a bit higher than support nationally. Twenty-seven percent (27%) oppose such a law, but 12% more are undecided.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of the larger group that favor an Arizona-like law support Kasich. Strickland earns 74% support from those who oppose a law like that in Ohio.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of Ohio voters consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, compared to 16% nationwide. Sixty-three percent (63%) are not members, but 15% aren’t sure.

Kasich wins 87% of the vote among Tea Party members and the plurality (47%) of those who are not sure. Fifty-four percent (54%) of non-members back Strickland.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Buckeye State voters view the Tea Party movement as good for the country, while 29% say it’s bad for America. This is comparable to views nationally.

Forty-three percent (43%) approve of the job Strickland is doing as governor, but 55% disapprove. This includes 13% who Strongly Approve and 30% who Strongly Disapprove. These findings are unchanged from the previous survey.

Strickland, also a former congressman, is viewed Very Favorably by 14% of voters in the state and Very Unfavorably by 31%. Just seven percent (7%) have no opinion of the current governor.

Twenty-two percent (22%) have a Very Favorable view of Kasich, while 16% regard him Very Unfavorably. But one-in-four voters (25%) don’t know enough about Kasich to express any kind of opinion.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Ohio, Rasmussen Reports' final survey before Election Day showed Obama and McCain tied at 49% in a race Obama won 51% to 47%. In 2004, Rasmussen polling showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry in Ohio by a 50% to 46% margin. Bush won 51% to 49%.

In the 2006 Ohio race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Sherrod Brown beating Mike DeWine by 11 points, 54% to 43%. Brown won by 12, 56% to 44%. In the 2006 race for governor, Rasmussen polling showed Strickland leading Ken Blackwell by 25 points, 59% to 34%. Strickland won by 23, 60% to 37%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/ohio/election_2010_ohio_governor